Cycle 1: Genesis - 2013
Who was there? Cypherpunks, technology nerds, the true OGs, very few people.
There was practically no publicity, the concept was barely understood, perhaps by hundreds or a few thousand people. The price, given that it started from scratch, has an explosive upward trend, leading to it being positioned in the media as ‘magic internet money’. Practically none of the investors who got in at the time had the profile of a big capitalist. Those who did, some of them, did become big capitalists.
The call to the first curious individuals who had the courage to buy it back then was almost 100% influenced by NGU theory. Those who opted, at the time, to start serious hodling and the DCA concept of accumulation could practically be counted on the fingers of both hands. They called it a bubble, and that made sense with the fall of Mt. Gox and the Silk Road scandal, which marked the end of that cycle. The fall was tremendous, and the very wealthy were quick to say loudly, "I told you so" "Bitcoin is going to zero", and that long list of Bitcoin obituaries we know grew quite quickly.

Cycle 2: 2013-2017
Who was there? Those who survived the first era and a significant number of people, retailers, who heard about Bitcoin and started their own process. Some new Fiat millionaires who weren't there at the beginning, too, but few.
Exchanges are starting to emerge from under the rocks, and the alternative market is also emerging, experiencing strong growth. Many are entering there, riding the ICO craze and hoping to make quick profits in other coins, convinced they've missed the BTC train. It's more than obvious that the motivation is still solely NGU. I arrived at that time, in 2017, and believe me when I tell you that it was really difficult to find reliable information and debate, in terms of exposure and dissemination. Deep understanding of what Bitcoin represents is currently growing, but at a much smaller rate than the price. By the end of the cycle, the bubble effect reappears, and the market is practically empty. Most people sold out. A new bear market, larger than the previous one, and massive growth in alternative coin markets. The list of coins other than Bitcoin grew from a few dozen to hundreds and, shortly afterwards, thousands. Can you guess where most experienced speculative investors moved to? To the Alts.

Cycle 3: 2018-2021
Who was there? Previous investor adopters, who once they had got a feel for the periodicities marked by previous cycles, sold at the right time and astutely bought at low prices over a fairly long period. Coinciding with the halving in 2020 and due to the post-Covid period, however, a new profile has emerged that was not there before. Big money, but timidly so compared to what will come later. Even politicians
The distinguishing factor compared to previous times is the macroeconomic situation resulting from the central bank's intervention after Covid: more money was printed than ever before, and it is clear that this will lead to an explosion of inflation. Large holders of fiat money began to see the writing on the wall regarding the fiat scam, and the concept of deflation began to be studied more and more deeply, inversely to the speed of fiat devaluation, with the cycle already over, in fact. I hope that most people recognise that the Covid situation, the pandemic and what happened afterwards represented a significant change in many aspects of our society and system. It was a schism in many ways, but above all, and in relation to Bitcoin, in financial and monetary terms.

Cycle 4: 2022 - 2025¿?
Who was there? Early retailers, many whales with a lot of zeros accumulated in the previous four-year periods, altcoiners who saw the light, but above all, institutional money.
The inflation stemming from the 2020 printing becomes brutally apparent, starting in 2022, coinciding with the expected change in monetary policy and liquidity cutoff, leading to the bear market that closes the circle, as before. All financial markets, not just Bitcoin, are affected. The world is trying to adapt to a new normal, but macroeconomic circumstances can only fuel the cyclical myth. Surprisingly, regulatory risks are beginning to decrease, comments and debates involving relevant players in the TradFi world are becoming increasingly common, one country has accepted it as official currency, and mining is developing and expanding rapidly. Countries are choosing to monetise natural energy generation flows. The usual FUD topics are becoming less and less important. During 2023, banking crises are quickly quelled, but the symptoms of an increasingly weak fiat currency are becoming more and more evident, so much so that the players with the deepest pockets, led by BlackRock, enter the scene and quickly overcome previous regulatory reluctance, allowing the first solid bridges to be built for the mass purchase of Bitcoin.

As soon as Larry arrived, those around him followed suit, and the authorization to trade Bitcoin as a reserve asset on which to anchor a series of ETFs, which were very quickly planned, authorized, and launched, caused a massive boom with very large capital inflows, leading Bitcoin to reach an ATH just before a halving, in 2024, something that had never happened before. Subsequently, and given the evidence of the seriousness of the true solvency of sovereign countries, with parabolic growth in debt, coupled with the effects of inflation, large capital investors have begun to ask questions that they did not ask before. The sudden change in regulatory acceptance brought about by ETFs has opened up a race that did not exist before. Public debt markets, junk bonds, are in crisis like never before, and investment companies are once again appearing at an increasing rate, having designed systems to channel growing demand from that side of the table to anyone who has implemented a policy of accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury asset...

Since ETFs arrived, the price action started very strongly but has since moved in a long-term horizontal pattern, growing very slowly. It accelerated following the US elections and certain expectations at that level, reaching new all-time highs, but growing, especially in 2025, in comparison with the last year of each previous cycle, in a totally anomalous way: it does not rise as before and when it falls, it falls little. This has been developing in this way for 16 months now.

Dear friend: things have changed, a lot, both in Bitcoin and on the Fiat side. Those who arrived in the last year and a half act very differently from the kamikaze retailers who used to throw everything they had into their favourite alternative project in the depths of the bear markets of the past. Altcoin markets are fading. They have stagnated and have not followed previous growth patterns; market dominance is now driven by big capital. These investors may vary their techniques and adapt them, but in general terms and given where they come from, sales are not expected, at least not on a massive scale as in 2013, 2017 or 2021...

When the price of Bitcoin drops by 20, 25 or 30%, there is more than enough money to prevent it from falling further. More than enough, and this is an initial process, at this financial level of those who are now operating. They are making it grow slowly (you know, with futures you can make it move with the brakes on) precisely to make the old holders tired, impatient and willing to sell. And at the lowest possible price. It's not because there isn't money to buy it at any price, it's because it's still too early for big capital, and it's quite clear that most of those feeding these new buyers are the retailers of the past, so they are the target of this slow-motion movement.

This function has a particularly painful period, which begins in just half a year, approximately. It is the one in which those who set their target at a conservative ceiling of 150 or 200k for ‘this cycle’ and will sell their coins to the fund manager who has billions to invest and is in no hurry, because he is one of the few country club members who is already buying regularly and has no need to re-accumulate, much less sell ‘that thing’ that he already knows will be highly sought after in 3 or 4 years, more than (almost) anyone ever imagined.

Want to buy cheap? Buy the dips! They're making it easy for you to increase your stack. It's going slowly, until it stops going slowly. If you expect that next year you will be able to buy back what you sold to ‘Mr. Deep Bond Pockets’ at 180k for 70 or 80k, you are more than screwed... did you think these people are going to let that happen? That only happens with retailers, not with the honorary members of the Country Club.